14 Implications of Population Growth and Declining Access to Transhumant Grazing Areas for the Sustainability of Agropastoral Systems in the Semi-Arid Areas of Niger

Sahelian pastoralism is encountering difficult problems as population growth leads to the expansion of cropland at the expense of traditional pastures. Many analysts believe that pastoralism is bound to dis appear and is likely to be replaced by mixed crop–livestock farming systems, where livestock stay near the farms and provide milk, draft power, and manure for soil fertility (Boserup 1965; Ruthenberg 1980; Pingali, Bigot, and Binswanger 1987; Beets 1990; Landais, Lhoste, and Guerin 1990;). However, other studies suggest that mixed crop–livestock farming systems are less suited than pastoralism to the low and erratic rainfall patterns of the Sahel. Sedentary farming systems have limited means for coping with drought, while traditional pastoral systems, which rely on walking animals to other regions that have received better rainfall, are much more able to cope (Scoones 1995; Toulmin 1995). The shift from pastoralism to more settled farming is driven in part by increasing population pressure and greater commercialization of agriculture. These forces create new opportunities as well as new needs for intensifying the farming system within rural communities. At the same time, these forces might also lead to greater enclosure and settlement of traditional grazing areas, leading to diminished access rights to these areas. Thus, the decline in traditional pastoralism can be seen as a cause as well as a result of diminishing access to transhumant grazing areas, and to a shift to increased cropping. To better understand the economic forces driving these transformations, and to assess their implications for future livelihood standards and environmental sustainability, we have developed a bioeconomic model of a typical community in the semi-arid areas of Niger. The model is used to simulate the longer-term consequences of changes in population growth and reduced access rights to transhumant grazing areas. Particular attention is given to the role of drought risk in conditioning the model’s results, and how improved methods of managing drought risk affect the development pathway that the community follows.